AVENTURA, FL. — Changes in population and income levels will alter food demand and the placement of corporate assets, Michael Zerr, longtime model leader at Cargill, Minneapolis, told attendees at the opening session of the International Sweetener Colloquium on Feb. 26.
If you think 10 years ahead, it's less about pricing and more about “how does Cargill place assets throughout the supply chain,” Zerr said. Long-term drivers are population growth and gross domestic product.
Depopulation in China is giving way to growth in India, now the world's most populous country, Africa and the Middle East, Zerr said.
Food demand shifts as income levels rise, Zerr said. Low-income countries focus on calories. Middle-income countries eat more meat or protein and less grains. In rich countries, the focus is shifting to time, and consumers are buying foods that are more convenient and diverse.
“India is in some ways the new China,” Zerr said.
As India's population increases and income increases, the demand for food, including protein (dairy and pulses instead of meat for cultural reasons) and sweets, also due to cultural preferences, will be much greater. Daily calorie consumption in India is still about 700 calories behind China.
Zerr pointed out that China is not a big consumer of confectionery, unlike India, where there is a “big culture around confectionery,” which means “massive sugar growth in India.”
