Actually it looks very simple. With a simple cross on their ballot, Turkey could take a radical new path on Sunday: They could end Recep Tayyib Erdogan’s increasingly autocratic government.

No coup or rebellion needed, elections made it possible. And for the first time in years, victory for a challenger, pro-democracy Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is within reach.

The two presidential candidates differ not only in individual points of their electoral programs, but also have completely different concepts of democracy, pluralism and religious and ethnic freedoms. Therefore, the consequences of choosing this direction are enormous – for Turkey, Europe and the world.

Andrea Beans is an editor in the International Politics department and will be glued to TV on Sunday nights.

Intellectuals can return from exile

Changes in the shift of power will be immediately apparent to Turkish opposition figures, intellectuals and journalists: They may soon be able to leave prisons where they are held for political reasons, not only in the opinion of the Strasbourg Human Rights Court.

The journalist Can Dündar in Berlin and many intellectuals who had been forced into exile were able to return to their homeland. Kurds and religious minorities can breathe a sigh of relief.

But countries like Sweden will also benefit directly: Stockholm’s decided NATO membership will no longer be blocked. But as democrats and autocrats around the world fixate on Turkey’s election, there’s a reason for it.

Turkish voters have the opportunity to choose a freer society which will also return to prosper economically in the medium term.

Andrea Beans

At a time when authoritarian politicians from Hungary to India are on the rise, a peaceful vote from Erdogan will break this trend. And show that change is still possible in countries whose democratic systems are being punched from above.

It’s also about the social environment

But Turks will decide. And there are other factors at play too: Like everywhere, it’s about the environment. Erdogan still represents the rise of religious-conservatives from a population that has long felt marginalized.

Nationalism is also very strong outside these groups – Erdogan could score again there. He is considered a strong leader who secured Turkey’s rightful place in international politics as a regional power.

But Erdogan has a weakness, and that is disastrous economic development. Her core clients also feel this way; and it is clearly linked to Erdogan’s autocratic and erratic policies, which rely on personal loyalty over expertise. This is clear from the revelations about corruption in construction policy, which became public knowledge after the devastating earthquake in February.

If it seems clear to Western observers that Turkish voters must end authoritarian politics: For Turks, a change of power will also be a risk and a kind of leap into the unknown. You have to admit that. Other nations often shy away from this leap.

Challenger Kilicdaroglu is credible in his concern for strengthening democracy and dismantling the presidential system. She too may have learned from past mistakes and lessened her fear of another headscarf ban.

Its strengths are inclusion and consensus building. This is the only way he can unite very different opposition parties into a strong electoral alliance. But what political quid pro quo is needed in terms of electoral victory is less clear.

And don’t forget: On Sunday there will be not only presidential elections, but also parliamentary elections. It was recently deemed unlikely that parties in the six-party opposition alliance would win an absolute majority in parliament.

This could also have an impact on the president’s decision. Because if neither candidate wins an absolute majority on the first attempt, there will be a second round two weeks later.

Until then, Erdogan can scare voters, for example with a presidential scenario without a parliamentary majority (in the case of an AKP parliamentary victory).

With a staunch nationalist electorate, he can present himself as the only leader who can prevent a pro-Kurdish parliamentary majority. In the second round of elections, there will be completely new things.

The only thing that is clear today is that Turkish voters have the opportunity to vote for a freer society and thus, in the medium term, an economically prosperous society. The world supports you.