2024 will be a super election year: almost half the world's population lives in countries that will hold elections next year. A new president is elected in about 30 countries, and the composition of parliaments is determined in about 20 others.
US: Will Trump return?
Donald Trump has not yet been named as the Republican candidate. But it is likely that the former president will run against incumbent US President Joe Biden on November 5, despite several ongoing criminal proceedings. The constellation will be the same as in the last presidential election. Trump had still not acknowledged defeat at that time and his lies about a “stolen election” reached a crescendo with his supporters storming the Capitol. Disinformation may also define the 2024 election campaign – and discussions about whether the 81-year-old candidate and his then-78-year-old challenger are fit to rule the country in their old age.
Russia: opposition eliminated
Vladimir Putin has been in power in Russia for 23 years. In 2020, his constitution was changed so that he could theoretically remain president until 2036, meaning he would defeat Josef Stalin. It wasn't until December that Putin officially announced his candidacy for the March 17 election; the 71-year-old wants to rule another six years. He has almost nothing to fear from opposing candidates. Against the backdrop of Russia's war against Ukraine, the opposition and civil society were silenced. The main political opponents are dead, in exile or in prison, as is Alexei Navalny, the Kremlin's biggest enemy.
India: Prime Minister Modi's favorite
Nearly a billion Indians are being asked to vote for parliament in the world's most populous country in April and May. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his nationalist BJP party are seeking a third term in office. Modi's political career is based on the support of more than a billion Hindus. Critics accused him of inciting hostility towards Muslim minorities. His supporters praise him for improving India's reputation in the eyes of the world. Although Modi has restricted civil liberties in recent years, he is the clear favorite in the election, which will last several weeks due to the size of the country.
European elections: a test for right-wing populists
In the world's largest transnational elections, more than 400 million eligible voters from 27 European Union countries will determine the 720 members of the European Parliament in June. Following the victories of right-wing populists in Italy and the Netherlands and the current immigration debate, the vote is a test of far-right support at European level.
Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg: AfD leads in survey
New state parliaments will be elected in Germany's three eastern federal states in 2024: in Saxony and Thuringia on September 1, in Brandenburg three weeks later on September 22. According to the survey, the right-wing populist AfD could become the strongest force in all three states.
Mexico: First female president?
In June, a woman could become president of Mexico for the first time. This would be a powerful symbol in a country where thousands of women are murdered every year. Two women are considered favorites to replace President Andrés Manuel López Obrador: former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, from the left-wing ruling Morena party, and Senator Xóchitl Gálvez, a candidate from the opposition alliance.
Iran: First elections after mass protests
Parliamentary elections in Iran will take place on March 1, 18 months after the death of Mahsa Amini. The death of the young Kurdish woman after her arrest by morality police sparked months of mass demonstrations against political and religious leaders. These protests were violently suppressed, hundreds of people were killed and thousands were arrested.
Before the last elections in 2020, many reform-oriented and moderate candidates were excluded, leaving Iranians only able to choose between conservatives and ultra-conservatives. (AFP)
