India is in the spotlight of the G20. For Prime Minister Modi, the G20 summit in New Delhi is also a test: Can he persuade the warring powers to make a joint declaration?

New Delhi/Frankfurt – First Russian President Vladimir Putin is cancelled. Then followed by his counterpart Xi Jinping from China. And US President Joe Biden just confirmed this week that he will travel to New Delhi to attend the G20 summit. This means the importance of one of the most important events on the diplomatic calendar can be maintained again – for now. For Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, there is still a lot at stake. The G20 has never been as divided as it is now. The G7 countries in the West are faced with a large group of developing countries – such as India itself, China and Brazil – who want to break Western dominance in the world. The conflict will likely overshadow this weekend’s summit.

That G20 group uniting the largest developing countries with the advanced industrial countries of the West. Created in the phase of the global economic and financial crisis, the G20 primarily wants to stabilize the global economy. It is actually a good idea to bring together the most important developing countries with the powerful G7 countries to find solutions in case of a crisis. Overall, the G20 currently represents 85 percent of global economic output, 75 percent of international trade, and two-thirds of the world’s population. However, now the views of the parties involved are increasingly different.

G20: Disagreements over Ukraine and climate protection

Many developing countries, for example, did not participate in Western sanctions in the war in Ukraine and remained neutral. This also applies to India itself, the increasing competition between the US and China is also disturbing. At this moment, simply because of the war in Ukraine, it seems almost impossible that the assembled heads of state and government will unanimously agree on a final communique. None of the usual G20 ministerial meetings in an Indian presidential year have achieved this. They concluded with an “outcome document” that also noted differences of opinion, especially at Russia’s instigation.

And according to Reuters, new points of contention over climate protection have emerged in preliminary discussions over the past few days, making the fight to reach a final declaration even more difficult. The most controversial is the phase-out of fossil fuels, coal and oil, which Russia, China and Saudi Arabia want to delay.

It remains to be seen how skillfully Modi will act in this difficult environment. This role is new for him. Therefore, the results of the G20 Summit are completely open. If a substantive final declaration is achieved, India and the G20 will emerge stronger from the summit. If the communiqué fails for the first time in G20 history, the format may lose its relevance.

India’s Modi wants to take advantage of the G20

However, Modi will most likely do everything in his own interest to achieve a respectable result. He has been performing on the world stage for weeks, the most recent being the successful landing of an Indian space probe on the moon. Western countries are courting him to more closely integrate the world’s largest democratic country. “The election campaign in India has been a long time coming and the G20 is of course already part of Modi’s well-orchestrated show,” said Adrian Haack of the CDU-affiliated Kondrad Adenauer Foundation in New Delhi. India’s presidency of the G20 is very popular in the country. “Trickshaw drivers, hairdressers, tea sellers and gardeners are talking about the G20. “The largest delivery service in the country is offering a 20 percent discount for the G20 Summit,” Haack said.

The euphoria surrounding Modi and the G20 may be the reason why Xi Jinping canceled his participation in the G20 summit for the first time. Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar assured on Wednesday: the cancellation is not unusual and has nothing to do with India. Instead of Xi, Premier Li Qiang, who is in charge of the economy and finance, is traveling.

G20: Scholz and Lindner travel to New Delhi

But especially in Western countries, this is seen as a sign of contempt for the G20 format. Xi “seems to want to turn more to alternative international forums such as the Brics format,” said Ulrich Lechte, foreign policy spokesman for the FDP parliamentary group. IPPEN.MEDIA. “Given rising tensions in East Asia and the Indo-Pacific region,” Xi’s presence was certainly expected, said Nils Schmid, the SPD faction’s foreign policy spokesman. He missed the opportunity to “approach each other personally and thus have the effect of easing tensions,” Schmid said. IPPEN.MEDIA. Informal bilateral discussions on the sidelines of summit meetings are almost as important as plenary sessions.

“The communist leadership is clearly increasingly uninterested in maintaining the existing (chaotic) global order and is instead seeking to create an alternative China-centric order,” said Michael Roth, criticizing the rejection. “Given these developments, a joint final commemoration would come as a surprise. “Because with Russia and China, there are two countries that are clearly not interested in making this summit a success,” said the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Bundestag. IPPEN.MEDIA.

These words reflect a certain anger and disappointment. The G20 summit remains important even without Russia and China, Chancellor Olaf Scholz stressed about Deutschlandfunk at the start of the week. He traveled to New Delhi along with Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner. He will meet bilaterally with Modi just before the summit.

India is not only considering a final declaration but has other goals

So, will crises and power plays destroy the G20? And Indian foreign policy experts and journalists Shashank Mattoo believes the G20 is relevant because of the many global crises – pandemics, wars, high wheat and energy prices: “One word defines the G20: crisis,” he wrote on X (formerly Twitter). For Mattoo, the final declaration is not the only measure of the summit’s success. India wants to expand the G20 to include the African Union (AU) – after all, the EU is also a member – as well as achieve faster debt relief for poor countries and reform of the World Bank.

Breakthroughs on these issues “will strengthen India’s reputation as a mouthpiece for developing countries,” Mattoo believes: “Just the presence of important international figures in Delhi would be a major PR win.” And this certainly made the G20 a success, at least for a while. India.