An “environmental transformation” is underway, an energy transition, a shift away from fossil fuels such as oil or coal. In western industrialized countries, at least in certain regions, people are increasingly turning to electric cars, sometimes voluntarily and sometimes they are increasingly being directed in that direction by politicians. However, the reality is different when viewed globally. The majority of the earth’s population does not participate in this “transformation” at all. A switch to other energy sources may be possible through cheaper prices, but only through warm words? Today’s OPEC data shows that global oil demand is expected to increase sharply in the next few years.

As a cartel, OPEC is somewhat biased because it talks about its own products. But you can’t say that OPEC has thrown out fantasy numbers in forecasts and other publications in recent years. Currently, OPEC has a view on the long-term development of global oil demand publishedin the so-called World Oil Outlook.

OPEC raised its oil demand forecast to 116 million barrels per day by 2045

According to OPEC, oil consumption will increase by 16% over the next two decades and even reach 116 million barrels per day in 2045, about 6 million barrels per day more than previously estimated, according to Bloomberg’s latest ranking. Therefore, road transport, petrochemicals and aviation will drive oil demand growth. India is expected to see the biggest increase, with consumption more than doubling to nearly 12 million barrels per day, followed by China with consumption increasing by 4 million barrels per day, or 26%.

“The view that the world must move away from fossil fuels has changed as other energy policies and targets have weakened due to costs and a more nuanced understanding of the scale of the energy challenge,” said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais. Western leaders are reconsidering their climate policies amid voters worried about inflation, and Britain postponed a ban on petrol car sales last month. Energy companies BP and Shell have refocused on their traditional oil and gas businesses after experimenting with a faster transition to renewable energy.

IEA with a different perspective

But few believe that continued use of hydrocarbons can be justified within the timeframe set by OPEC. The International Energy Agency predicts demand for fossil fuels will decline by the end of the decade as countries shift to renewable energy sources and electric vehicles. Investment in new oil projects must stop now if the government is to meet its net zero emissions targets and limit temperature rise to 1.5C, he said.

This summer may be humanity’s hottest ever, bringing deadly heat waves to India and Greece, Hawaii and Japan, while increasingly powerful storms wreak havoc across Asia and Africa. In the Atlantic, extremely hot water caused massive coral bleaching and several deaths on coral reefs in the Florida Keys.

OPEC has also increased its oil production estimates in the coming years, although most of its members are currently unable to fully exploit their production quotas due to investment deficits, operational disruptions and political instability. Therefore, OPEC’s supply of liquefied natural gas will increase by about 14% to 38.9 million barrels per day by the end of the decade, and ultimately reach 46.1 million barrels per day in 2045. However, the data does not include separate figures for crude oil, which OPEC uses for its production quota system, and therefore does not provide a complete picture of the organization’s influence on global markets.

FMW/Bloomberg

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