It was an expression of weakness. For days, the Russian army has been targeting attacks on critical Ukrainian infrastructure – on power plants, waterways and telecommunications facilities; Residential buildings were also shot. The reason for this asynchronous war was probably the attack on the bridge across the Kerch Strait from mainland Russia to the Crimea, allegedly carried out by the SBU of Ukraine’s domestic secret service.

But the reason goes deeper: Putin is in Russia has come under immense pressure from warring factions in the secret service and military in recent weeks. The nationalist right has also long been agitating against alleged war behavior of hesitating and indecisive. With – like war crimes – attacks on civilian infrastructure, Putin now wants to show toughness and determination.

Putin’s motives are deep behind Russia’s current attack

The attack had two main impetus: On the one hand, the Russian leadership wanted to make the daily life of the Ukrainian population much more difficult. Congestion of electricity, heat and water supply is expected to weaken Ukraine’s will to fight back, especially in the coming winter. On the other hand, the energy shortage also means a heavy burden for the Ukrainian economy, which is already faltering. The company cannot produce or only partially if there is a shortage of energy.

This was followed by a broader motive from Russia: The difficult supply situation in winter was meant to trigger another wave of refugees from Ukraine. On the one hand, this will confront the EU countries with a new wave of migration, and on the other hand, it will further weaken the situation of Ukrainian enterprises – namely due to the lack of workers.

For Russia, the bombing of civilian infrastructure is an instrument of terror against the civilian population and a lever to damage the Ukrainian economy. Ukraine’s GDP will collapse at least 35 percent. But the more difficult the economic situation, the more expensive it will be for the West, which must keep Ukraine afloat financially.

Another military defeat of the Russian army is expected on the Dnipro

However, the Russian bombardment did not bring advantages to Russia on the military front. The Russian army could no longer maintain a long front in some places. The dwindling line of soldiers was a major factor in this. It is debatable whether the partial mobilization ordered by Putin can effectively remedy this predicament. The territory of the Cherson region, occupied by Russia on the western bank of the Dnipro, is currently very at risk. Another military defeat of the Russian army is imminent.

But the war will continue for a long time. War ends when one of the conflicting parties is able to assert itself militarily or when both sides are militarily exhausted and can no longer hope for success on the battlefield. We are still far from both scenarios. Even the approaching winter won’t stop the battle.

Signs of discontent are also coming from India and China

The West continues to support Ukraine militarily and financially. By supplying increasingly complex modern weapons systems, the West, together with operational warfare guidance and support, enabled the Ukrainian army to successfully retake territory. This certainly won’t subside, even if the warning voices of a (nuclear) military escalation triggered as a result grow louder.

Therefore, the Russian military situation in Ukraine is improving. But Russia is also under political pressure. The UN General Assembly condemned the annexation of four Ukrainian territories by a large majority. While this resolution is not binding under international law, it is a clear political signal.

But there are also signals of dissatisfaction and distance from india and, a little less obvious, die China. Both countries pushed for a ceasefire and firmly rejected further military escalation by Russia. In the next few weeks, Russia will face military and political challenges.