.webp "Morgan Stanley raises India GDP forecast after Q1 data ‘surprises to the upside’")
New Delhi
Morgan Stanley has revised up its economic growth forecast for India for fiscal 2024 after quarterly data from April to June showed the country posted the fastest growth in a year.
The multinational investment bank raised India’s growth forecast to 6.4 percent from the original 6.2 percent. She attributed the revision of the growth forecast to robust domestic demand.
India’s GDP growth came in at 7.8 percent in the June quarter, beating Morgan Stanley’s forecast of 7.4 percent.
“This was above our expectations (7.4 percent) but in line with consensus expectations (7.8 percent). The upside surprise was driven by stronger-than-expected private consumption growth,” Morgan Stanley said in a report.
“Resilient domestic demand momentum continues to be reflected in GDP numbers, which have surprised to the upside for two straight quarters,” it said, citing firm GST surveys, credit growth and the Purchasing Administration Index.
It assumes that resilience will be maintained. Stronger balance sheets across the economy and proactive supply-side government responses should provide a firm foundation for a strong multi-year growth cycle.
At the same time, it has been pointed out that risks lie in weak global growth conditions, trends in global commodity prices and “idiosyncratic” weather conditions.
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