India and China are also fighting for influence in the Indian Ocean. Now the Maldives has cut ties with India and turned to China. India has announced its answer.

For some people, imagining the Maldives puts them in a peaceful mood. Many Indians now feel differently. Because the neighboring country had expelled them suddenly – not tourists, but Indian soldiers stationed there.

The President of the Maldives, Mohammed Muizzu, has issued a decision to expel them. But that's not all: At the same time, a military agreement between the Maldives and India's rival China became public knowledge. And then a Chinese spy ship appeared in the Maldives.

What happened? More and more international observers are asking themselves. Could there be a dramatic shift in the balance of power in the Indian Ocean and even globally? The next stage towards Chinese domination in Asia and beyond?

“China has established solid roots”

In fact, China's influence in the region has continued to grow over the years, through alliances with Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and increasingly with the Maldives. Alok Bansal, a military policy expert from Indian think tank “SAISA”, explained: “China has planted deep roots in the region and has dug deep into its pockets. China is investing heavily in many countries, including the Maldives. This is not true. ” coincidentally the new president of the Maldives visited China for the first time.” And not its neighbor India. An insult.

But why does the Maldives have such immense strategic importance? Less because of the population, more because of its location in the middle of the Indian Ocean.

Only half a million people live there, almost half of whom live in the capital Male. From there there is now a bridge to the airport located on an offshore island. This prestigious 1.4 kilometer long project, which began operating in 2018, costs around 200 million euros. Most of the funds come from China.

The Maldivian infrastructure minister jointly responsible for this was called Mohammed Muizzu, and like the entire cabinet at the time, he was committed to pro-China action. Beijing has repeatedly helped the government in Male with loans. Loan debt now amounts to the equivalent of more than one billion euros. That may not sound like much from a German perspective, but the amount represents more than half of the Maldivian government's annual revenue. High obligations make you dependent.

A long way from China – and back again

After Muizzu's cabinet was ousted in 2018 – partly over corruption allegations – his successor government tried to shift direction from China to its neighbor India. The mainland is only 2,000 kilometers (China is 5,000 kilometers) and diplomatic contacts have traditionally been much more intensive.

India is now renowned as a lender – and as a promoter of infrastructure. A bridge is currently being built on behalf of India that will connect Male with three neighboring islands, with a total length of almost seven kilometers. The flow of tourists from India has also increased. In the last three years, most foreign visitors to the Maldives have come from India. And now it's all back again?

In fact, that's what it looks like. Mohammed Muizzu is running for president and campaigning in the “India Out” campaign. On the one hand, this is retaliation for India's support for the previous government.

On the other hand, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu nationalism was not well received by conservative Muslim voters in the Muizzu Party – the Maldivians are officially 100 percent Muslim. Beijing's actions against China's Uighur Muslim minority do not appear particularly disturbing.

Soldiers have to leave – tourists stay away

Muizzu won in the fall of 2023 and soon got serious, first with the forced departure of Indian military troops. At first glance, their number is at least 80 people and their activities are non-military in nature. If a disaster occurs, the army must help with the evacuation.

But the symbolic meaning of the running pass is very important. The first 25 people just left, the rest will follow on May 10th. As if in protest, more and more Indian tourists are staying away. Their numbers have fallen by a third since the start of the year. Not surprisingly, most visitors now come from China.

India is looking for alternatives

A political response from New Delhi was not long in coming. Prime Minister Modi announced that he would develop India's Laccadives islands into a holiday hub in the Indian Ocean. Their beautiful atoll is located only 130 kilometers north of the Maldives. A military base will also be built here – in response to China's increasing presence.

India's new toughness could pay off, says Alok Bansal of think tank SAISA: “This pro-China Maldives policy is just a temporary phenomenon. At some point, they will recalculate and come to their senses. Especially if a disaster strikes, India is closer to the Maldives . They will see it.”

It is not yet clear how Arab countries, Europe and the United States will react to this transfer of power. Not to mention the reaction of Western tourists to the power struggle. Who wants to vacation on an atoll that could turn into a powder keg?