Mohamed Muizzu is the new president of the Maldives, and his every move will now be closely watched – not just in his small tropical island nation, but also in the capitals of major countries. The reason is, the Maldives is located in the Indian Ocean, not far from the sea route that connects the continents. These regions are of geostrategic importance, and whoever rules them will now have to come to terms with two governments in particular: India and China. Delhi and Beijing are competing for influence, and one of the stages is the Indian Ocean.

The previous president, Ibrahim Solih, had been clear since 2018 First IndiaEstablished politics. However, many voters seem to feel that the closer proximity to Delhi is too strong a point. Solih’s rival, Mohamed Muizzu, has focused his campaign entirely on challenging these close ties. He was clearly infuriating. The narrative that the country’s independence was at stake apparently encouraged many people to vote for Muizzu. There are also those who are disappointed because Solih has not eradicated corruption as promised. Muizzu won the second round on Saturday with 54 percent of the vote.

This novelty gave a signal that the Indian army had to withdraw

The 45-year-old election winner is seen as someone who wants to work more closely with Beijing. Its victory should be welcomed by the government there, because this is in line with China’s strategic efforts to form a network of allies in the Indian Ocean. Additionally, the change in the Maldives president thwarted India’s plans to gain greater control over its offshore waters.

Some time ago, rumors circulated that India had secured a naval base in the southernmost Maldives atoll, Addu, through a secret military contract. How much Indian military is stationed in the Maldives remains a secret. What is certain is that India has two helicopters and one small aircraft available there for emergency operations.

Muizzu, who previously served as mayor of Male, has now signaled that Indian troops should withdraw from the Maldives. Shortly after his victory, he was quoted as saying: “The people told us they don’t want any foreign military here.” However, there are many ties to India, so it is unclear how far the new president will ultimately be able to disengage from Delhi.

Muizzu’s rise to the top of the state was mainly due to the fact that penultimate president Abdulla Yameen was unable to take part in the elections. The court sentenced him to eleven years in prison for money laundering and bribery. His political camp then brought Muizzu as a candidate. He was Minister of Construction under his mentor Yameen and gained a lot of experience in dealing with China during these years.

A difficult path for a small country that is being courted by big countries

Yameen, president from 2013 to 2018, has moved closer to Beijing. China has invested heavily in infrastructure; a large bridge now connects the international airport with the capital Male. But the building also symbolizes the Maldives’ high national debt. As in the case of Sri Lanka, critics point to the dark side of China-driven progress: the rapid flow of money from Beijing’s coffers has pushed the country into a dangerous debt trap.

But these concerns appear to be less decisive in the election than growing distrust over an alleged secret military deal with Delhi, which would undermine the tiny island nation’s sovereignty.

The election winner, Muizzu, has now spoken about the need to find the right balance in relations with major powers and the need to not get too attached to one partner. He announced that he would “regain Maldivian independence.” This was well received by the public – but it was a difficult path for a small country courted by big powers.