Lower sugar exports from India, also the world’s second largest exporter, could lift world prices and allow rivals Brazil and Thailand to increase shipments.

“The harvest was similar to last year, but when we started harvesting, we realized that the yield was very low,” said Pradip Jagtap, a farmer from Solapur district in the western state of Maharashtra, India’s leading sugar producing state.

This year, Jagtap was able to harvest 530 tonnes of sugarcane from nine hectares of land, compared to 750 tonnes the previous year.

Like Jagtap, 192 other farmers in Maharashtra’s 11 main sugarcane growing districts told Reuters that prolonged dry weather conditions during the summer and then heavy rains afterward affected the sugarcane harvest.

“It was a tough summer, then we had too much rain since July,” said farmer Baban Karpe from Kolhapur. “The fields were waterlogged and the plants had not received sunlight for weeks.”

On average, farmers report a 15% reduction in sugarcane yields, but in some pockets they say losses per hectare are as high as 35%.

Maharashtra, which accounts for more than a third of the country’s sugar output, is expected to produce a record 13.8 million tonnes of sugar in the current marketing year which begins on October 1, up from 13.7 million tonnes the previous year, according to the state government.

But a 15% drop in sugarcane yields could reduce Maharashtra’s sugar output to 11.7 million tonnes, said a senior sugar mill official and a trader at a trading house. Both declined to be named because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

Apart from Maharashtra, sugarcane growers in the neighboring state of Karnataka are also facing severe weather conditions. As a result, Karnataka sugar production is likely to fall to 5.5 million tonnes this year from 6 million tonnes produced in 2021-22, said factory officials.

Falling sugar production in Maharashtra and Karnataka could cause India’s sugar production to fall to 33.3 million tonnes for 2022-23 from 35.8 million tonnes last year, a record, the mill said in unpublished estimates.

EXPORT DECREASE

New Delhi has allowed mills to export 6.15 million tonnes of sugar in the first tranche, and the Sugar Mills Association of India expects India to reserve up to 4 million tonnes of sugar for overseas shipments in the second tranche.

But the drop in production means the government could allow a small amount of exports in the second tranche or even disapprove any further exports, said a Mumbai-based trader with the international trade body, who did not want to be named according to his company. rule.

India will allow exports after confirming there is sufficient supply to meet local demand of around 27.5 million tons, said a senior government official, who declined to be named.