He added that India's size gives the country the resources to diversify and modernise its economy over time and can become a magnet for foreign direct investment.
Shikha ChaturvediDhruvaksh Saha New Delhi
India is expected to be a superpower but not a high-income economy by 2047, Martin Wolf, chief economic commentator at the Financial Times, said on Friday. According to the economist, the global economic slowdown and a shock-prone, fragile world are making India's emergence as a high-income economy more difficult.
“I don't think that's plausible, but it's doable. It would require India to do something similar to what China did in the 20 years before 2012. Even if it doesn't do that and just stays on its current course, India will probably become a superpower by mid-century by most definitions,” Wolf said in a talk titled “What would have to happen for India to become a developed country by 2047?”
In the run-up to the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections, the central government has made India's development into a highly developed economy by 2047 a recurring theme. In addition, the central think tank NITI Aayog is working on a vision document that identifies sectoral gaps and areas that need improvement over the next two decades.
According to Wolf, to become a high-income economy, India's per capita GDP would have to rise from 4.8 percent to 7.5 percent annually, but this is unlikely given the global economic slowdown, the trend toward deglobalization and the decline of liberal democracy around the world.
However, with good relations with the West and a hugely successful Indian diaspora, India has the opportunity to exploit its political position and become an obvious “plus one” in a world of “China plus one”.
He added that India's size gives it the means to diversify and modernise its economy over time and the country can become a magnet for foreign direct investment (FDI).
“There has been consistent over-optimism about the long-term impact of new technologies on underlying productivity growth,” he said, adding that there were “grossly exaggerated” hopes about the contribution of artificial intelligence to productivity.
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