With the coup in Niger, Europe and the US continue to lose influence in Africa. China in particular will benefit from this – if the military situation remains stable.

The military coup in Niger rebalanced the balance of power between the BRICS countries China, Russia and India on the one hand and France and the United States on the other. The West does not accept military coups; the dissidents, in turn, acted anti-Western. The Chinese presence, on the other hand, “was not affected by the coup,” said Rahmane Idrissa, a researcher at the Center for African Studies at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands.

With a share of 18.7 percent, China is already Niger’s largest trading partner, ahead of the former colonial powers France (14.1 percent) and India (8.5 percent). If coup leader General Abdourahmane Tchiani continues his anti-Western path and stays in power, China, as the second largest foreign investor to date, could even overtake France in this area.

Niger may lose to the West because of the ouster

Niger was very important to Europe under the last democratic government in the Sahel until the coup. Coups in the neighboring states of Mali and Burkina Faso have turned Niger into a Western geostrategic stronghold in the region. What cheap Russian gas means to Germany, cheap Nigerian uranium means to France, which continues to rely heavily on nuclear power. Niger is also militarily important to the West. So far, not only German and French troops have been stationed in the country; The US has operated Niger Air Base 201 there since 2016, one of the few permanent US military bases in Africa.

All of this now hangs in the balance since General Tchiani took power in late July and overthrew democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum. Tchiani immediately ended military cooperation with France. This is bittersweet because France had to withdraw its troops from there after the military coups in Mali and Burkina Faso.

China with many projects in Niger

After all, China and Niger have built a lot together and still have a lot planned. Beijing is in the process of building a 2,000-kilometer oil export pipeline. And they want to mine uranium deposits together. A shared industrial park is also planned.

The oil pipeline is more than 60 percent complete. Capable of transporting 60,000 barrels of oil per day, it will be Africa’s longest pipeline when operational. It passes through Benin in the south and ends in the Gulf of Guinea, near Lagos, a Nigerian city of 16 million people. It will be the first to link the 650 million barrel Agadem oil field, which Petro China and Niger have jointly developed since 2008, to international markets.

In general, Niger has only become an oil producer with China’s help. Oilfield production will now be expanded. According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, together with the pipeline, an investment of about four billion US dollars is involved. So far, according to US Embassy calculations, China has invested 2.61 billion in Niger, making it the second largest investor after France.

The investment also includes a 20,000 barrel per day oil refinery to meet Niger’s needs. China holds a 60 percent stake in the facility. Niger’s imports from China have increased by an average of 14 percent annually to $441 million in 2021 over the past 26 years, and exports by 33 percent to $344 million.

China and Niger: joint uranium mining

Co-production of uranium is also progressing. Just over a month ago, then-President Bazoum received a delegation from the China National Uranium Corporation (CNUC) to negotiate the terms of China’s takeover of Nigerien Société des Mines d’Azelik (Somina). The project was initially abandoned nine years ago due to low international uranium prices at the time. “Now international prices are cheaper,” said Ousseini Hadizatou Yacouba, Minister of Mines under Bazoum Niger. “Now it is easier for us to develop this sector with all our partners, including CNUC which already has an operating license.”

Niger is one of the top five uranium suppliers in the world. Approximately a quarter of Europe’s uranium imports and a third of France’s uranium imports come from Niger. With 56 nuclear power plants, France is one of the countries with the most nuclear power plants after the US. Germany is also gradually importing nuclear power from France. Therefore, Germany should not be interested in French uranium sent to China in the future.

Stronger Chinese presence in Niger

Beijing, on the other hand, is under immense pressure to diversify its uranium suppliers: 70 percent of China’s uranium imports come from just three countries: Kazakhstan, Canada and Australia. Even without a coup, China will push for a stronger presence in Niger. Coups, however, could hasten development. At least that is what Gyude Moore, former Minister of Public Procurement in Liberia and now Senior Policy Fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington, fears: “China has no preference when it comes to regime type. If Western governments step down, China’s influence will automatically increase.”

However, it is not yet clear whether this will happen. Meanwhile, it is clear that Tchiani has no support from the African Union. On July 29, he gave the rebels, backed by the UN Security Council, a two-week ultimatum to restore the old balance of power. So far there has been no sign that the rebels are willing to bow to pressure.

China: neutrality, but pro bazoum

In this mixed situation, China behaves more neutral than the West and the African Union. According to a Foreign Ministry statement, China hopes politicians in Niger will “peacefully resolve their differences through dialogue” and “restore normal order” as well as “stability and development” “as soon as possible.” the situation indicates that the embassy in Niger asks Chinese nationals to avoid traveling to Niger unless absolutely necessary.

Nevertheless, in the statement, Beijing took a clear position in support of deposed President Mohamed Bazoum. He is a “friend of China” and Beijing hopes “that his personal integrity is assured,” explained Wu Peng, head of the Africa department at the foreign ministry. By Chinese standards, that’s a pretty clear commitment to the Bazoum – and shows that China needs political stability for its economic activity. Whether General Tchiani can provide that is uncertain.