The planet will have more than 8 billion inhabitants before the end of 2022. Eight times more than in the 19th century. The world’s population continues to grow, and could reach 10 billion by the end of this century. But its growth rate continues to slow markedly, the National Institute for Demographic Studies said in its latest world population table.

In 2022, the population of the planet has only increased by 1%, while it is still increasing by 2% every year sixty years ago. The reason is a decrease in fertility. Today there are 2.3 children on average per woman in the world, compared to 5 in 1950.

Africa’s population triples

So much so that some estimates deviate from UN projections and predict that the world’s population is at risk of halving by 2100, having peaked at under 9 billion people around the middle of this century. For its part, INED, aligning itself with UN projections, considers the likelihood that population growth will continue “to decline until a virtual stabilization of the world’s population by the end of this century of about 10 billion people”.

At the regional and country level, demographic trends differ. Demographic growth, for example, is much more sustainable in most countries in Africa and the Middle East, and in northern India. “This is where most of the world’s population growth will occur in the next few decades,” INED said. The agency estimates that Africa’s population will “nearly triple” by 2100, from 1.4 billion to 3.9 billion.

By 2023, India should also steal the title of the world’s most populous country from China: it currently has a fertility rate of 2 children per woman, compared to 1.2 in China, while both countries have half of -2022 each, just over 1.4 billion inhabitants. By 2050, the United States also risks losing its position as the third most populous country in the world, in favor of Nigeria.

In contrast, Europe is characterized by the aging of its population. 21% of the population is currently 65 years or older, while the global average for this indicator is 10%. Her fertility rate is also 0.8 points lower than the world average. Consequences: the EU’s natural annual growth rate is negative, at -0.2%.

With an aging index of 22% and an average of 1.8 children per woman, France has an annual natural growth rate of 0.1% (compared to more than 3% in Niger, Congo, Uganda or Angola). The indicator is negative in Germany, Italy and Japan.