Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from 24 February 2022 will target Latin America, Asia and the Middle East rated inconsistent. In general, you can anti-Western reflex seen in various governments. The attack marked a global turning point that had a variety of different effects. But how can this caesura be described, understood and translated into political action?
The stand-alone system after the end of the Cold War appears to be in tatters. The invasion of Ukraine blatantly undermined the rules-based relationship that had provided stability and order to the international system for years. This undermines common solutions in international relations, especially the United Nations as a central global platform. The war ultimately promoted new camp thinking. Alliances and partnerships seem more important than ever.
Caesura shows even more dependence and a different form of cooperation – which not only has an impact on politics, but also on the everyday lives of very simple people. The war caused enormous global welfare losses, with energy and food spending soaring in many countries and growth collapsing. Some policy areas, such as energy security, have suddenly received more attention, sometimes in combination with significant increases in public budget funds. The same applies to military spending.
Other policy areas and challenges that have escaped political attention. It is rightly criticized that efforts to combat climate change in particular have been neglected. Other areas are being reassessed, such as inconsistent trends in the development of new fossil fuels on the one hand and some of the dynamics in favor of renewable energy on the other. All of these developments are very important to the Global South and are shaped by the actors. The results are reflected in geostrategic constellations or, for example, access to energy sources. The Global South is quickly becoming a strategic partner struggling in fluctuating geopolitics.
The Global South as a category shows a homogeneity that does not exist in reality.
From Global South as a category denotes the homogeneity of a group of countries which, as is well known, did not exist in reality for decades. The number of countries, whose conditions are very different – for example in terms of population, government system and economic power – shows how inaccurate or even misleading the simplified categorization can be. However, they usually have a similar history and position towards OECD countries. Through a merger like this group 77the largest group formed by developing countries within the United Nations, and the so-called non-aligned country there are political similarities that see themselves as independent political forces in world politics.
Identity as a group of countries can be precisely through the revival of identity “West“to be promoted. It also cannot be determined on the basis of clear characteristics or even formal membership. Rather, it should be understood as an unorganized group whose countries share a common value orientation with regard to an open democratic system of government and which are partly connected through defense policy alliances such as NATO or economic and political associations such as the European Union or the G7.
Russia is trying to negatively shape the concept and perception of the “West” globally.
Russia is trying to shape the concept and perception of the “West” globally. It’s about the obvious negative connotations of the “West” as an informal alliance of states that needs to be fought. Its aim is to secure global economic and political supremacy of minority states. In this regard, the juxtaposition of alleged Russian aggression between the “West” on the one hand and the “whole world” on the other poses the risk that it is not about the war in Ukraine itself and more about geopolitical conflicts. in which the Global South views double standards and enduring unfair political and economic structures. Target ads Chancellor Olaf Scholz and other Western representatives therefore for the narrative of the multilateral world order that is in the interests of the Global South.
Different perspectives on the African continent can be seen very strongly in relation to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Consistent clear pan-African voice, who resolutely spoke out against aggression, occupation and expulsion, someone searched in vain. This can be partly explained by historical links, such as the support of the former Soviet Union for African liberation movements such as the ANC in South Africa or SWAPO in Namibia. Coupled with criticism of Western “double standards”, such as military intervention by the “West”, especially the United States, which occurred without a UN mandate – such as the “willing coalition”, which in 2003 supported the US attack on Iraq.
African countries are even more approached as political allies, and in some cases also as partners with access to energy resources.
Especially the friendly character of the African Union (AU) leaders’ visit to Senegal President Macky Sal, and the AU Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, with President Vladimir Putin in Russia in June 2022 demonstrated two things: First, African countries were approached more strongly as political allies, and in some cases also as partners with access to energy resources, which also reflected in Chancellor Scholz’s visit, as well as in his role as chair of the G7, also made clear in June 2022 in Senegal, Niger and South Africa. Second, the impact of Russian aggression on food security is very important, especially for African countries.
Much of the perception after Russia’s aggression since February 2022 has focused on how states and groups of states have behaved in UN resolutions and debates on wars of aggression. This focus on voting behavior alone shows that the country’s political position has gained new relevance. In this regard, the improvement of strategic thinking regarding the Ukraine war played a major role. At the same time, the formation of a new state alliance, which is fundamentally different from the constellation of recent years, is nowhere to be seen. It also means that many developing countries are taking advantage of the political emancipation they have gained in recent decades and formulate their own position and also mention the double standards of Western governments.
China is getting closer to allies to enforce new international rules and perspectives.
It is expected that international and global economic relations, relations with the Global South and development policies will be dominated by geostrategic issues and problems. The US firmly assumed thisthat competition in all areas, especially in the economic, military or zone of influence, will be permanently characterized by competition with China. This is likely to become more influential in the future and is currently partly overshadowed by Russia’s war of aggression.
China is getting closer to allies to enforce new international rules and perspectives. Increased cooperation between China and Russia to come up with their own discourses.”true democracyControlling the debate shows how China is particularly trying to influence global opinion.
The rivalry between key players in the Global South is likely to become clearer in the future: this applies at least to the relationship between India and China. India’s position on Russia’s war in Ukraine is also influenced by the question of how the possibility of war will affect the balance of power between China and India. At the same time, China is interested in the previous circle BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) to include developing countrieswhich are not part of the G20; this may be a further attempt to expand their own zone of influence.
Complete to “uncertainty“increasingly a systemic challenge. The unanticipated or under-anticipated crises of recent years – from migration pressures in Europe to climate-related disasters that are evident in all regions of the world – are putting pressure on decision makers. The crisis forces immediate action; however, they leave less room for anticipatory and creative approaches. The need for proactive strategies in uncertain contexts is increasing. Strategic Foresight and concrete cross-political action plays an important role against this backdrop.
