Experts see the beginning of a new phase in the Ukrainian war

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From: Markus Hofstetter, Sven Hauberg

Vladimir Putin is traveling to Belarus for the first time in years. This raises concerns in Kyiv. Meanwhile, London warned against premature negotiations on a truce. News ticker about war diplomacy.

Update from December 19th, 14:20: The left has put forward a “peace plan” for Ukraine that calls for immediate talks on a ceasefire. This must now be taken up by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj and Russian head of state Vladimir Putin, party leader Martin Schirdewan said Monday in Berlin. Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron must mediate and involve China and India.

The second point of the plan is for Russia to fall back to its pre-February 24 invasion of Ukraine. Provided that Putin complies with this, all sanctions imposed on Russia after the start of the war must be lifted, Shirdevan said. The third point of the plan left was an increase in humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and haircuts to allow for reconstruction.

Abandoning the ‘peace plan’: Eastern Ukraine will remain under Russian domination

The plan means the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014, and separatist areas in eastern Ukraine will remain under Russian domination – which Ukraine vehemently rejects. Russia also has little interest in peace talks at the moment. Both sides hoped to get military land. Therefore, the proposal must have little chance of implementation.

Schirdewan also asked Germany to cancel the ban on imports of Russian oil from the Druzhba pipeline. He considered the federal government’s unilateral neglect a “fatal mistake,” he said. That would have negative consequences for the East German economy. Druzhba oil must be constantly flowing.

Ukraine-News: Sunak warns about early ceasefire negotiations

Update from December 19, 13:51: British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has warned against rushing into negotiating a ceasefire in Russia’s war against Ukraine. “We must be clear that any unilateral call for a ceasefire by Russia is completely meaningless in the current context. I think it will be a false call, it will be used by Russia to regroup to strengthen its troops,” Sunak said Monday at a meeting with the leaders of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) in Riga. Until Russia withdraws, there cannot and must not be real negotiation.

At the height of defense cooperation between the Baltic states and northern Europe, Sunak called for more arms shipments to Kyiv. Ukraine needs air defense systems, artillery and armored vehicles, says the British prime minister. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj also campaigned on this, speaking to participants via video and addressing them individually with real demands.

Ukraine News: Putin’s meeting in Minsk could usher in a new phase of war

Update from December 19, 2022, 12:24: Vladimir Putin’s visit to Alexander Lukashenko could mark a new phase in the Ukrainian war. This is what the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suspects in its current situation report starting Sunday (18/12). Therefore, the Russian President wanted to discuss the wider participation of the Belarusian armed forces in the fighting at the meeting – which the Ukrainian government also fears.

According to ISW, further signs of a new offensive operation against Ukraine in the coming months will be Putin’s earlier meetings with the military command and the visit of the Russian defense minister. Sergei Shoigu on the southern Ukrainian front.

Ukrainian - Belarusian war
According to ISW, the armed forces of Russia and Belarus are not capable of carrying out a large-scale combined strike. Here Russian troops took part in exercises in Belarus. (Photo from December 19, 2022) © Press Service of the Russian Ministry of Defense/dpa/alliance image

But ISW sees neither the Russian nor Belarusian armed forces in a position to mount a large-scale offensive. The Russian reserves are not sufficiently trained and are underequipped. The think tank also does not expect Lukashenko to allow his ill-equipped troops to attack Ukraine.

Parallel to Minsk’s visit, Russian troops conducted maneuvers in Belarus. This was announced by the Ministry of Defense in Moscow, as reported by the Interfax Agency. Train at battalion level. Therefore, the Russian units became part of the new combined combat force with Belarus.

Ukrainian War: Russia, China hold joint naval exercises

Update from December 19, 2022, 11:58 am: Russia wants to join this week China holding naval exercises. The maneuvers are scheduled to take place from December 21 to 27 in the East China Sea, the Ministry of Defense said in Moscow on Monday: “The main objective of the exercise is to strengthen maritime cooperation between Russia and China and maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.” Four Russian and six Chinese ships were involved, as well as several airplanes and helicopters.

The Russian-Chinese naval exercises have been held annually since 2012, but this time they are likely to come under special international scrutiny due to the Ukraine war. Because while China is pushing for a negotiated solution in Ukraine, it continues to maintain a “solid” friendship with the Kremlin. China’s state and party leaders may want to do it this year Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin will also meet again for talks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said recently – not yet known in person or via video. Chinese language course correction is not expected.

China and Russia last held major joint military exercises in September: about 50,000 troops from both countries as well as from India, Belarus, Tajikistan and Mongolia exercised martial law during the “Vostok 2022” maneuvers in eastern Siberia and in the Sea of ​​Japan.

Putin’s visit to Lukashenko: the mood is on alert in Ukraine – and in Minsk too?

First report from December 19, 2022: Moscow/Minsk – Alexander Lukashenko strong from Russia depending, not just since 2020 – but then protests against controversial re-election suppressed by the Belarusian rulers with the consent of Moscow. Recently, the two countries made a new agreement on economic and military cooperation. Russia and Belarus have even formally joined a union since 2021, with the smaller partner relying heavily on Moscow.

A However, Lukashenko ruled out joining Russia. And even before meeting with Vladimir Putin, the Belarusian president tried to remove the wind from the sails of criticism.

Vladimir Putin meets Alexander Lukashenko: topic “Strategic partnership”.

Against the backdrop of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine the two former Soviet republics have significantly expanded their military cooperation. For example, Belarus provides its military bases for attacks on Ukraine. However, the Belarusian armed forces have not yet intervened in the fighting. Lukashenko has also repeatedly stated that he has no intention of sending troops to Ukraine.

Russian President Putin visits Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus
Russian President Putin traveled to Belarus in June 2019 to meet with Alexander Lukashenko. (Photo archive) © Sergey Bobylev/dpa/alliance pictures

Good will Wladimir Putin traveled to its western neighbors for the first time in years. This Monday he will meet Lukashenko in Minsk. The two long-term heads of state wanted to talk about their countries’ “strategic partnership” at a working meeting, the Kremlin and the press service of the Belarusian president said. Other topics include regional and international issues.

Lukashenko spoke before the appointment. Dan showed decisive action: “Yes, we stand with Russia. We remain a sovereign and independent country,” he said Friday, according to a report by state agency Belta. “No one rules Belarus but us,” Lukashenko emphasized – after the talks, “everyone will say that there is no more power in Belarus and that Russia rules the country here.” The situation is being “artificially stoked,” he claims.

Putin travels to Minsk: Ukraine is concerned about joint exercises by Russian and Belarusian troops

In parallel with Putin’s visit to Minsk, Russian troops are conducting maneuvers in Belarus. This was announced by the Ministry of Defense in Moscow late on Monday, as reported by the Interfax Agency. Train at battalion level. After the end of the exercise, the “combat capability and combat readiness of the unit” should finally be evaluated. When and where exactly the exercise should be held was not announced.

that Therefore, the Russian units became part of the joint combat forces with Belarusians, which is being repositioned. According to previous information from the Belarusian side, up to 9,000 Russian soldiers should be its members.

The joint meetings and exercises worried Ukraine. From Kyiv it was said that all possible defense scenarios are being prepared. “No matter what is planned in Minsk, it will not help them any more than other sick ideas in this war against Ukraine and Ukraine,” said the President. Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Ambrose Fernandez

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