“We expect merchant banking revenues in India to grow by around 10% (annual) in dollars over the next three to four years, which translates to 16-17% in rupees given the depreciation,” K Balasubramanian, head of investment banking for South Asia, told Reuters on Thursday, added that Citi had increased its hiring.
The 10% growth would be “200 basis points” higher than the annual growth observed in recent years and faster than some of the other countries in which the bank has a presence, he added.
In the year ending March 2021, Citi India’s revenues from corporate banking totaled 85.13 billion rupees ($1.07 billion), making it the largest contributor to its activities, exceeding revenues from treasury, retail banking and other banking services.
Corporate banking revenues include interest and fees earned on loans to customers and income from trading and transaction services, according to regulatory filings.
Volatility in global markets amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed commodity hedging activity over the past six to nine months to the highest levels of any bank in India, he said.
India is one of the major contributors to corporate banking revenue in Asia-Pacific, he added.
Despite the disruption from the pandemic, India remains one of the fastest growing major economies, with an average growth forecast of 7.2% for this fiscal year.
Earlier this year, Citi sold its consumer franchise business in India to Axis Bank. It also reduced its consumer activity in 12 other markets to refocus on more profitable institutional business and wealth management.
In India, banks have increased front-end staff in corporate banking by 10% over the past two quarters, Balasubramanian said.
If the pace of business continues, the lender could consider adding a further staff within 12 to 18 months, he added.
Citi seeks to channel credit flows to overseas subsidiaries of Indian companies and capture flows in trade corridors between India and neighboring countries.
“Bigger investment growth is expected in 2023-24 and with that the GDP figure will pick up. We may even see better growth as we expect it to grow at twice as fast as GDP (in rupees)”, he added.
($1 = 79,8100 Indian rupees)
