In at least one respect, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ministers’ trip to government consultations with their German counterparts in Berlin on Monday should be relaxing: millions of Indians are currently suffering from a heatwave, in the northwest and central. Temperatures in India have risen to over 45 degrees Celsius.
The weather service warned that the 50-degree mark could be exceeded in the next few days. The cool spring temperatures in the German capital, on the other hand, can endure very well without air conditioning.
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Host Olaf Scholz (SPD) has just returned from another Asian country – from Japan. The fact that after a visit to a NATO partner in East Asia he now accepts the political leadership of the world’s largest democracy, but has never been to Beijing, should be taken as a signal in China.
Meaning: In the coalition agreement, traffic light expressly intends to strengthen the strategic partnership with India that has existed for more than 20 years and at the same time to take a tougher stance against authoritarian China.
This will be appreciated in New Delhi, as India sees China as its most dangerous rival and is suspicious of any attempts by Beijing to expand its influence in the world – whether through the New Silk Road or through naval bases in the Indian Ocean (“The Pearl Thread”).
A few years ago, after much hesitation, India joined the “Alliance for Multilateralism” promoted by Germany and France. The amalgamation of democracy is meant to strengthen the rules-based order against its destruction by US President Donald Trump.
But New Delhi fears angering Trump, with whom Modi feels a close relationship. India’s prime minister is regarded by some critics as the “Trump of Asia” because of his Hindu nationalist stance, which divides his country.
New Delhi is firmly committed to a rules-based world order, which is why the world’s largest democracy with 1.3 billion good people is not yet an easy partner – and there’s no talk of a “value partnership” in Berlin either.
On the one hand, this is because the human rights situation has deteriorated under Modi and civil liberties have been restricted, and the country’s Muslim minority feels threatened by Hindu nationalism. But equally important is India’s refusal to side with the West in world conflicts.
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The reason is the non-aligned tradition of the former British colonial empire, which has always tried to establish good relations with Russia. Unlike the 141-member UN, New Delhi therefore does not condemn Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine. However, after the Bucha massacre, the tone towards Moscow sharpened, which was precisely what was recorded in Berlin.
Indian politicians have responded to Western criticism of Russia’s silent war of aggression by pointing out threats to their country from China. At the Raisina geopolitics and geoeconomics conference in New Delhi, which was also attended by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar recently answered a question from guests on this topic: He hopes the war in Ukraine will be a wake-up call for Europe to pay more attention to what happens in Asia in the future – another allusion to Beijing’s aggressive policies.
The German chancellor and minister will hardly criticize the attitude of the guests towards Russia in public. While they want a clearer censure of Kremlin policies, pressure is not seen as the right tool to steer India down a new path. Even if the subcontinent now wants to buy cheap gas and oil from Russia and thus avoid Western sanctions.
The Federation of German Industries (BDI) did not mince words: it criticized India’s neutral stance for complicating political and economic cooperation. “The West must take into account the fact that India will not be placed in any camp in an increasingly bipolar world order,” said Wolfgang Niedermark of BDI management.
In the system competition with China, Germany and Europe, such as India, have to diversify their economic relations. Both sides must now reduce their dependence on Russia.
“That applies to European energy imports as well as Russian-Indian military cooperation,” said the BDI representative. Within the federal government, however, there is little hope that New Delhi will break away from its decades-old tradition of arms purchases and cooperation with Russia in the future.
The Indian military is too dependent on this partner, which is also supposed to strengthen it against Pakistan, which is also equipped with nuclear weapons. Hostility towards neighbors is another reason for relations with Moscow: China represents Pakistan’s interests in the UN Security Council, while Russia represents India’s interests.
Behind closed doors, however, the Germans are likely to show their guests that Russia’s growing dependence on China due to Western sanctions is limiting Vladimir Putin’s maneuvering space and could turn him into a stooge of Beijing.
Cooperation in combating climate change will be an important topic in intergovernmental consultations. 90 percent of India’s energy comes from fossil fuels. As Germany helped transition this vast and densely populated country to renewable energy, it is also contributing to the global fight against global warming.
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