India’s Sensex stock index could hit 80,000 by the end of next year if the country is included in global bond indices and prices of commodities like oil and fertilizer fall sharply, analysts at Morgan Stanley said.

The inclusion could generate nearly $20 billion in inflows over the next 12 months, the brokerage firm said, while citing a 30 percent chance the blue-chip index will hit the number.

Also read – BSE gets Sebi to appoint Ramamurthy as CEO

India’s long wait to be included in JPMorgan’s influential emerging markets Local Currency Debt Index should be delayed until next year, Reuters reported earlier this year. The Wall Street Bank said in October that India was on the radar for inclusion.

Indian markets have resisted weakness from Asian peers this year, with the Sensex closing earlier in the day at a fresh high of 62,504.8.

As of Monday’s close, the index is up 7.3 percent so far this year, compared with a 22.46 percent fall in MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan.

The broker also sees a 50 percent chance of the Sensex hitting 68,500 by the end of next year, assuming the effects of the Ukraine-Russia conflict don’t spill over into 2023, domestic growth continues on its strong trajectory, and the United States doesn’t slip into a protracted recession.

“India is likely to have better growth than most parts of (emerging markets), sustained domestic supply, relatively strong macro environment and light positioning from overseas portfolio investors,” the broker said in a note on Sunday.