Olaf Scholz wasn’t even chancellor when he had met Lula. Almost a year ago, shortly after the general election, the man who Barack Obama once called the world’s most popular politician was a guest on the SPD. The party maintains close ties with almost no other politician outside Europe. Former chairman Martin Schulz even visited Lula in prison in Curitiba, where he is being held on questionable corruption charges. But the election in Brazil, which went very differently than expected, illuminates Germany’s foreign policy challenges like a magnifying glass.

The far-right Jair Bolsonaro has far better than polls and media predictions in the world’s fifth-largest country. And he can manage to hold himself in the office in the runoff. Lula stands for the good old days of multilateral revivals, fairer societies, expansion of mutual trade and grand deals to protect rainforests made.

Bolsonaro’s decisive action on Amazon brings sound

But now it looks different: In some areas of the Amazon, Bolsonaro has more than 70 percent of the vote, and agricultural and timber entrepreneurs are grateful for the massive support. Here, above all, economic gains are ahead; they can’t buy anything for climate protection.

His electoral successes, like those of Donald Trump and others, have shown that certain mindsets no longer fit, caudillo types like Bolsonaro presenting themselves as advocates for disillusioned citizens who fear too much change. Because Bolsonaro’s government is being treated like a pariah by EU countries – and they have previously sought isolation by insulting Angela Merkel and other heads of government – none of the multibillion-dollar efforts in agreements to protect certain rainforest areas can be tackled, including free trade agreements. between the EU and the South American Mercosur countries were detained.

At the Chancellor, everyone knows: we have to pay more attention to the south

Scholz and his head chancellor, Wolfgang Schmidt, have discussed it intensively and agreed on his analysis. German foreign policy urgently needs to pay more attention to the countries of the World South, no matter how complicated the status of the relationship. Otherwise, the West will soon lose allies when a new world order emerges. For example, some 140 countries have not condemned Russia’s war of aggression on Ukraine in the UN General Assembly – and many countries have imposed Western sanctions for such consequences. such as inflation, energy crises and impending food shortages.

Brazil is a key country as it is also a member of the Brics alliance with Russia, India, China and South Africa. Things will definitely be easier with new President Lula, but Bolsonaro’s chances are now not bad that he will win the second round of elections at the end of October. He is deliberately more moderate, appealing in particular to the poorer class, which traditionally has more Lula supporters. And at 76, Lula doesn’t look like the incarnation of a fresh start.

Can there be change through rapprochement with Bolsonaro?

If Bolsonaro wins, the German government will ask itself: What’s next? Angela Merkel has launched German-Brazilian government consultations, the two cabinets met once in 2015, then Lula’s successor in the presidency, Dilma Rousseff, was ousted, first the conservative Michel Temer took over, then Bolsonaro. And Germany more or less turned away.

The role model of Scholz cooperates with the military dictatorship

On the other hand, Helmut Schmidt, Scholz’s role model, even worked closely with the Brazilian military dictatorship, which led to the German-Brazilian nuclear agreement – and the construction of nuclear power plants with German technology. In these very fragile times with tectonic shifts, more real politics is needed, one cannot expect partners. Early in his chancellorship, Scholz made very intensive efforts to engage India and South Africa, which were also invited to the G7 summit in Elmau.

Decisive autumn, also for the Chancellor’s diplomacy

His first trip to China was announced in early November ahead of the G20 summit. Relations here have also become increasingly complicated, but if anyone can stop Vladimir Putin from launching a nuclear strike, it is Xi Jinping. But Scholz’s omission is that he hardly cares about Latin America so far, and he doesn’t travel there either. The potential is huge, also for the expansion of renewable energy and new power grids with German technology.

This is a continent very close to Europe, but also increasingly turning to Russia and especially to China because of European disinterest. Lula could do it, but then she would need concentrated support. But even if Bolsonaro is to remain president, a change through rapprochement is needed, at least someone has to try.

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