IInvited as a member (since 2017) of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to a summit in Samarkand (Uzbekistan) on September 15 and 16, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Vladimir Putin that ” time [n’était] not for war without condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This position of neutrality, accompanied by an abstention at the UN during the General Assembly vote condemning Russia, was explained by long non-aligned traditions as well as by Moscow and New Delhi’s proximity, but it could prove dangerous. in the long run for the power of India.

The choice of non-alignment was made by Nehru shortly after India’s independence in 1947. Fostered by anti-colonialism and Gandhi’s thoughts on nonviolence, it implied a refusal to enter into the alliance the United States later multiplied against the Soviet Union, but not to forge special relations with other anti-imperialist states, as demonstrated by the Bandung (Indonesia) conference in 1955 in which New Delhi took part along with Indonesia or Egypt. During the decolonization period, this criticism of the West brought the non-aligned people closer to the Eastern bloc. The end of the Soviet Union did not end this special relationship: India still buys half of its weapons from Russia today.

The outbreak of war in Ukraine does not change India’s priorities. Narendra Modi wants to maintain his defensive capabilities: he has maintained a special relationship with Moscow, with the Indian army participating in the Vostok 2022 maneuver in Russia’s Far East. The Indian economy wants to tap into Russia’s energy resources: by 2022, Russia will replace Saudi Arabia as the country’s main supplier. Purchases of Russian fertilizers have increased eightfold. This choice of neutrality is also part of purely realistic diplomacy, which only seeks to defend India’s interests and theorize, under the name “multi-alignment”by the Minister of Foreign Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.

Indispensable against China

This choice, of course, can be maintained with respect to the weight of India, which has never been so great. Narendra Modi can legitimately think that no Western country wants to be angry with what will become one of the superpowers of the 21st century.^e century. India’s population is on its way to becoming first in the world, surpassing China in its dynamism: by 2021, 24 million Indian babies will be born. In three years, almost as many Indians were born as there were French. By 2022, India’s GDP will surpass that of the former British colonizer, making the country the fifth largest economy in the world. Finally, the Indian army (1.3 million troops) was considered by Washington to be essential to the balance of power in Asia against China.

You have 55.57% of this article left to read. The following is for customers only.