Only half of the states, which together account for about 85 percent of global economic output, have joined the Western sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
This is despite the fact that senior officials from a small group of rich nations have traveled to other parts of the world to advocate for tightening the economic net around Russia. Even if these countries do not actively help Moscow to evade sanctions, the cold attitude of many G20 members is still surprising.
For US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the ominous truth as he travels through Southeast Asia and Africa is that much of the world is unwilling to follow US and European efforts to isolate Russia.
“Boundless” Friendship
That makes it even more difficult to agree on global initiatives such as the G7 proposal to limit Russian oil prices. On the other hand, it encourages Putin and his main backer, Chinese President Xi Jinping, to pursue their respective global goals.
China is the main barrier. Xi had allied himself with Putin and declared friendship “without borders” just weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine. China’s spending on Russian fuel has skyrocketed since the war broke out – by 72 percent in June.
China is already locked in a rivalry with the US and tensions have been exacerbated by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei. And the G7 has its own disputes after the forum issued a statement expressing concern over Beijing’s “threatening actions” on the Taiwan issue.
A face-to-face meeting between China’s foreign ministers and G-7 members Japan planned for this week in Cambodia has been canceled by Beijing. Japan said late Thursday that several ballistic missiles launched by China during drills near Taiwan had landed in its exclusive economic zone — the first time this had happened — and lodged a diplomatic protest.
Distrust of the former colonial powers
But it’s not only Beijing that has resisted calls to rein in the Kremlin. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a phone call with Putin on July 1 and discussed ways to expand trade. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the leading candidate in Brazil’s presidential campaign, blamed Ukraine for the war, as did Russia.
In South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa criticized the US sanctions. Turkey concluded that punishing Russia would hurt Ankara’s economic and political interests, according to a senior official, citing $35 billion in damage from higher energy costs and the impact on tourism.
Economic interests are one of the reasons for the reluctance of the so-called Global South. But there are others, including historic ties to Moscow, concerns about signs of US withdrawal and distrust of the former colonial power.
There are parallels to the US-led effort to form a democratic coalition against Beijing. US Commerce Secretary Alan Estevez said in July that Washington’s cooperation with 37 countries in imposing export controls on Russia served as a model for a new system to counter threats from China.
Again, the US and like-minded nations have had limited success as G20 members, including this year’s host Indonesia, continue to make big deals with state-owned companies China.
competition for influence
Saudi Arabia, which maintains good relations with Moscow through its membership in the OPEC+ oil cartel, is another example. The country is also on the same wavelength as Beijing: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently said that many Chinese companies are already operating on Neom, a mega-project he is planning.
Riyadh doesn’t have to choose between American and Chinese technology. You can also “have a McDonald’s and a Burger King on the same street,” Saudi Ambassador to the US Princess Reema bint Bandar told reporters during President Joe Biden’s visit last month.
This approach to foreign policy has led to competition for influence. Chancellor Olaf Scholz invited Argentina, Indonesia, India and South Africa, all of which have not yet imposed sanctions on Russia, to a G-7 summit in late June, focused on Ukraine.
This rather lenient power struggle was also evident in Africa last month, when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was praised for Moscow’s nuclear power technology. He took the opportunity to emphasize Russia’s historic support for the African liberation movement, while claiming that sanctions are to blame for food insecurity, not the Kremlin’s blockade of Ukraine’s grain ports.
Moscow backed up this message with media attacks. French President Emmanuel Macron complained on his own trip to Africa that Russia was waging a “new kind of hybrid world war” on the continent.
Special attention level
China has followed a similar pattern in Africa. An African country alternates with China to host the triennial Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), which is usually attended by the Chinese president and holds face-to-face meetings with nearly every head of state. When FOCAC took place in Beijing, the red carpet was rolled out and tiny Equatorial Guinea was treated as equally important as Nigeria – a level of attention lacking in Washington.
China knows that every African country has a say in the United Nations and its institutions, and that has paid dividends diplomatically. Earlier this year, the US submitted a letter to the Human Rights Council condemning China for alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang, and it was signed by 47 countries, mostly European allies. Cuba responded with a statement on behalf of China, backed by 62 countries, mostly from the Global South.
Blinken’s decision to travel from Asia to South Africa and then to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda on August 7 looks like an attempt to step up not only against China but against Russia as well.
(Bloomberg)
