Russia now has three levers that make it tactically strong. Even if you don’t like it. The reason why Russia now has several options: The West has fallen into a triple trap. Russia’s first lever: gas. The second: “Peace”. Third: partner.

Let’s start with the last point. The West plans to isolate Russia internationally through sanctions and moralization of the conflict (it’s about the “rule of law”). That was also the plan of the Federal Foreign Minister, so he flew to a meeting of foreign ministers in Bali. One should not let Russia take the stage.

Meanwhile it became clear: the isolation had failed. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was not condemned by his Indonesian counterpart, who chaired the meeting. His statement remains ambiguous: It is “our” responsibility to ensure peace. We?

There doesn’t even seem to be a consensus among the G-20 countries on who the aggressor is. The West thinks it’s obvious. The G-7 summit in Elmau reached an appropriate agreement. Just: West is West. The West is not the world.

Lavrov spoke in his Chinese as he would his Turkish counterpart. The Chinese were America’s opponents, the leading Western power, and the Turks engaged in seesaw politics to show they were needed. It is a constant in President Erdogan’s foreign policy: he makes himself important. Currently as a supplier of wheat for the whole world (Irony out.)

Brazilian President Bolsonaro, clearly remembering his rainforest interests, has publicly sided with Putin. Western sanctions have failed, said the left-hander. What doesn’t make things better: The Brics countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) are currently trying to establish themselves as a counterweight to the western G7.

Conclusion: The West will not be able to isolate Putin diplomatically, and thus economically, as he wishes.

Regarding gas: Nord Stream 1 will be closed from Monday: “Maintenance work”. That’s not a bad thing. The question is: will this routine maintenance work end as planned in two weeks? Or are there “complications”? Or will Russia consider making a truly poisoned offer to the West, which relies on Russian gas as much as an addict next time.

Something like this: Unfortunately, pipe 1 is broken. Why not open Pipeline 2 and the gas will run normally again. Maybe even before the war – 100 and not just 60 percent. With such an offer, which Federal Economy Minister Robert Habeck recently complained about with dismay, Putin would do what he loves best – throw propaganda grenades at German society. If Germany agreed to this, the West could surrender immediately. Otherwise, something like the yellow vest movement could emerge in Germany.

Conclusion: The West is still caught in the gas trap, fear of winter running rampant among residents and the federal government. If Russia were smart about it, Germany would be in a classic dilemma. A dilemma that is likely to be very expensive to resolve.

Finally, case number three: negotiation. Moscow is not against peace negotiations. “But those who refuse should know that the further they go, the more difficult it will be for them to reach an agreement with us,” Putin said hesitantly in his speech. With that, Putin waved west. Dan finds listeners, and by no means only in the AfD and the Left, who advocate ending western sanctions and launching Nord Stream 2. However, “Pioneer” quotes his interview partner, Saxon Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer, as follows: Without gas from Russia, the basis of prosperity Germany will collapse, which is why now there must be a ceasefire and negotiations with Putin. Popular position in East Germany.

The chancellor has said that Germany will be able to maintain its position in helping Ukraine for a long time if needed. However, Scholz also points out that government depends on the consent of the people.

Conclusion: Negotiations, as Putin understands, are poison bait. However, that doesn’t mean it won’t be swallowed up in Germany at some point. Based on private conversations, one could assume that not only the TV-loving peace professors advocated negotiations as quickly as possible, but also mid-sized companies that cared about the future of their companies.