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Chancellor Scholz doesn’t even know what a multipolar world order means

Tuesday, 4 July 2023 | 13:00

It was in fact a press conference like any other Chancellor Scholz held on June 30 after the European Council. A statement. Some questions. Migration, China, Ukraine as topics and feelings when observing that everything has been negotiated here for too long and not effectively decided. Just like the press conference after the EU summit.

What Olaf Scholz said about “de risking” China

But then Scholz got fundamental. I wanted to quote him longer so he could make his point. Because this realization is terrifying. Scholz said when asked what China “reducing risk” really meant: “I firmly believe that globalization has affected the growing number of countries that have been included as production sites in global trade and economic relations, many of which are also experiencing an economic boom… The process this will continue. Anyone who does not imagine the world as multipolar may not have a realistic view of the world we will live in. There will be many countries in Asia that will carry their own weight, whether it be Korea or Japan, Vietnam or India, Malaysia or the Philippines, Thailand or India. There are very, very many. This also applies to Africa or South America, where there will be an EU-Latin America-Caribbean summit. This view needs to be expanded a little bit, and then many questions will also be put into perspective, especially because many new possibilities arose.”

Scholz claims: globalization continues

On the one hand, the issue here is whether the formation of global production and supply networks, in short: globalization, will continue, and on the other hand, the question of what form the international order will take. Scholz’s answer: Globalization is continuing and the world is becoming multipolar. Since the Federal Chancellor had to make fundamental decisions regarding Germany’s foreign and foreign trade policy, the importance of her judgments on this topic can hardly be overestimated. Anyone who thinks that globalization will continue is only looking to curb a little business with China. Someone who has analyzed that globalization is faltering and regional economic areas are developing more intensively would have decided differently. For Germany, as a powerful exporting country, this is an important question, because whoever draws the wrong conclusions here is also making the wrong decisions when it comes to investments, commercial contracts and company acquisitions. Let’s be clear: For Scholz, globalization continues, even if companies have to better assess the risks, for example when buying raw materials.

The question is very important for Germany

On the other hand, there is the question of which polarity the international order will develop – that is, not the corporate world, but the world of states – will develop. It is the federal government’s mantra that this will be a multipolar order, most recently adopted in the National Security Strategy. Why is it important? In international politics, the scope of action of small and medium-sized countries is limited by the interests of large and powerful countries. It is therefore important to ask how many such world powers, often in competition with one another, constitute an order. If there is one then the order is unipolar, if there are two orders are bipolar, if there are more than three then the order is multipolar. The federal government has come to the conclusion that a multipolar order will develop.

How did the federal government come to the conclusion that a multipolar order emerged?

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There according to my analysis it will not happen exactly, has always been a question for me: How did the Federal Government come to the conclusion that a multipolar order emerged? Now I have the answer. Chancellor Scholz doesn’t know what “multipolar order” means. Because for him it means that some countries “carry their own burdens”, which in itself is not as clear-cut as Scholz is concrete. But in any case, the very fact of “carrying your own burden” has nothing, absolutely nothing to do with the concept of polarity. You can see it in the examples Scholz gave: Korea, Japan, Vietnam, India, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, India, African and South American countries. Scholz said: “There are very, very many.” Of course, all countries try to pursue their own interests, sometimes with more success, sometimes with less success. But that has nothing to do with polarity.

There will be a bipolar world order

Specifically, the polarity of the international order is about the question: How many states can shape the international order through their own efforts and thereby influence the spheres of action of other states? It is clear that this does not apply to Vietnam, Thailand and others. Because unlike the US and China, these countries cannot use their power globally. When one thinks of a multipolar order, the only question that arises is whether the EU or India should also be included. To answer the question: no, both are too weak. The relative strength and strength advantage of the US and China is too great. Hence, the bipolar order emerged.

The federal government, not just the federal chancellor spouting this here, clearly doesn’t know what a multipolar order is, but thinks it can make stupid judgments about it. It’s dangerous. He who cannot conceptualize a fact cannot think about it. Scholz has revealed that the federal government has no idea what he’s talking about. That’s surprising.