India will be the most populous country in 2023.

REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, NEW DELHI – India will experience a population slowdown when global population reached 8 billion. Although according to the UN, India will be the most populous country in 2023.

Falling fertility rates in the South Asian country have forced at least one state to consider family planning policies of no more than two children. Indian government figures show that India’s annual population growth has averaged 1.2% since 2011. This figure is down from 1.7% in the previous 10 years.

The demographic slowdown is expected to continue. From 2019 to 2021, India’s total fertility rate (TFR) (children per woman) fell to 2 in the most recent assessment period. Previously, in 1992-93, the number was 3.4. It is believed that the average must be 2.1 for the population to reproduce.

“Increased use of contraceptives and improved education for girls can help reduce fertility rates,” the government said.

Use of family planning methods increased from 53.5% in 2015-2016 to 66.7% in 2019-2021. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) said this showed that India’s national population policies and health system were working.

“As India invests in its young people, it must come up with a demographic transition plan to support a greater proportion of older people in the future,” UNFPA said.

The state of Assam in northeastern India has a TFR above the national average. In January, the state government implemented a policy barring anyone with more than two children from being eligible for government jobs and local and civic body elections.

“It is the need of the hour to have such a law,” Chief Minister Assam Himanta Biswa Sarma said. But UNFPA says such measures have a limited impact on fertility, citing global experience.

“Most of these programs have little impact on fertility and in some cases are even counterproductive,” the UN agency said.

The world population is estimated by the UN at 8 billion on Tuesday (15/11/2022). China and India account for more than a third of the total. India estimates its population at 1.38 billion, slightly lower than the World Bank’s estimate of 1.4 billion for China.