WASHINGTON — Britain is set to return one of its last colonies to its residents, but national security experts say the move could have dire consequences for the United States, which leases a naval base to the United States. .

The Chagos Archipelago comprises about 60 islands located about 1,500 miles south of India, a position that gives a base on Diego Garcia island a strategic advantage due to its proximity to the Middle East and South Asia.

“This is an important story with strategic implications,” Timothy Heath, senior international defense analyst for the RAND Corporation, told The Post. “Diego Garcia… is a very valuable base because of its location in the Indian Ocean. The United States doesn’t have much access outside of Diego Garcia in that part of the world.

Last month, Britain began negotiations with the island nation of Mauritius over sovereignty over the Chagos Islands, which have been British possession since 1814.

“Through negotiations, taking into account relevant legal processes, we intend to reach an agreement under international law to resolve all outstanding issues, including those relating to the former inhabitants of the Chagos islands,” British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said. at the time.

While Cleverly has promised that “any agreement” reached with Maurice will “guarantee the continued and efficient operation” of Diego Garcia’s headquarters, Heath cautioned that “those conditions are always subject to change” – especially with outside influences.

“Over time, one day, the government [could] require renegotiating terms and as a result the US and UK could be denied access, so that’s a risk,” he said.

The biggest fear is that China, whose influence is growing in the region thanks to state-backed investments, will try to pay Mauritius for access to the islands – or worse, expel its Western foe, Diego Garcia.

“They could use their money to persuade the government of Mauritius to evict the British and Americans over time and use the islands for themselves – or perhaps allow the Chinese to build dual-use facilities. ”, Heath said.

Mauritius was officially part of the Chagos Islands until Britain formally separated it from the group in 1965 and granted it independence three years later. It was then that Britain also began to forcibly evict the inhabitants of Chagos to build military facilities that it had leased from the United States since then.

Many of the refugees moved to Mauritius, which challenged British sovereignty over the island chain at the International Court of Justice in The Hague in 2019. The court ruled that continued British rule over the island chain was illegal, but Britain overruled the decision. as non-binding.

That is the same logic China used after the same court ruled in 2016 that Beijing did not have sovereignty over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. The West – including the UK – has repeatedly criticized China for not following through on the move.

This put additional pressure on the UK to surrender the Chagos Islands and emerge as a responsible power that would respect the decision of the International Court of Justice.

“[Britain is] have diplomatic issues of their own trying to reduce the amount of their worldwide obligations to reduce some of the costs and trying to restore relations with certain countries around the world,” said Heath.

Diego Garcia is the main launch point for US Navy aircraft and ships. For the first five years following the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, the Pentagon maintained a bomber squadron on the island to assist troops there. Its importance has also increased after the United States abandoned Bagram Air Base during its withdrawal from the war-torn country last year.

“Diego Garcia allowed The United States to support operations demonstrates our shared commitment to regional stability, providing rapid crisis response, and countering some of the most challenging threats of modern times,” a State Department spokesperson told The Post.

But the location of the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean is also attractive to China, which imports most of its oil from the Middle East using a route across these waters, known as the “Sea Silk Road” from Beijing.

“The Entire Maritime Silk Road is an initiative designed to link the infrastructure and trade of countries along the Indian Ocean to the Middle East,” said Health. “The reason the Chinese are interested in building this is because they depend on this sea route for energy imports and a large part of their trade.”

China’s influence in the region has grown significantly in recent years, and experts fear Mauritius could fall into trouble on Beijing as other countries have.

“Sri Lanka, for example, is deeply indebted to China and has therefore agreed to provide China with better access to basic facilities or ports,” Heath said. “Something like this could happen in Mauritius, where Chinese money is starting to influence decision making in government.”

But the State Department has not taken sides on whether Britain should give up the islands – at least not publicly. A spokesperson told the Post that the US “welcomes formal talks between the UK and Mauritius” while noting that Diego Garcia “plays a critical role in Indo-Pacific and global security”.

“We view the sovereignty dispute as a bilateral matter and support UK and Mauritius engagement to resolve the issue,” the spokesperson said. “The United States recognizes British sovereignty over the British Indian Ocean Territory.”

According to Cleverly, the UK and Mauritius are expected to reach an agreement on the status of the Chagos “early next year”.