Conflicting atmospheric conditions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans could result in normal to above-average rainfall in the first half of the monsoon season and bode well for seeding. However, fleeting rains could hit the second half of the season, affecting irrigation, experts said.

“There could be a battle between La Nina and IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) which could result in a normal monsoon for the first two months, but rainfall could be erratic or become erratic in the second half of the monsoon,” GP Sharma said. President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency.

The Pacific oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon La Nina, which is an indicator of the monsoon, remains active in the tropical Pacific, according to the latest update from the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia’s national weather, climate and water agency.

However, IOD is currently neutral and could turn negative by August, the bureau said. IOD is an erratic variation in sea surface temperature in which the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer and then colder than the eastern part of the ocean.

“More than 60% of the time, conditions in La Nina are favorable for the Indian monsoon. However, the Indian dipole and its combination create some uncertainty. So they need to be seen in combination,” said AK Mitra, director of the National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting.

The Australian weather forecast is an important factor that is taken into account when predicting the monsoon in India. This year’s monsoon rains will be normal and well distributed across the country, India’s weather agency said last month.

The June-September monsoon is vital for agricultural production and economic growth as about 60% of India’s farmland depends on rainfall.

“Punjab, Haryana will make it”

Experts said the monsoon pattern is favorable for sowing this year.

However, in the rainy areas such as Maharashtra, parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Odisha, farmers may face difficulties in the second half of the year.

“The food bowl of North India, that is Punjab and Haryana, is rich in resources and can be farmed. However, in the rainy areas, farmers need to choose their crops wisely and keep an eye on the forecast of inconsistent rainfall.” Added Skymet’s Sharma.

The southwest monsoon contributes 74.9% of annual precipitation and affects rural demand for consumer goods, gold, automobiles, motorcycles, tractors, farm equipment and inputs such as pesticides, fertilizers and seeds.