The embargo on Russian oil transported by ships, decided on Monday by the twenty-seven Member States of the European Union, was added to the voluntary cessation of imports by pipeline, decided by Germany and Poland, will direct 90% of the large flow of petroleum products. Russia, in fact, is the EU’s main supplier, with 24.8% of its oil supply in 2021, representing, on a daily basis, 4.51 million barrels, including the UK (of world consumption of just under 100 million barrels per day).

The first consequence is the much greater demand on sea transport, particularly the largest tankers,​explains Paul Tourret, director of the Nantes Saint-Nazaire Higher Institute of Maritime Economics. We move from an economic logic, with a short distance between Russia and its major European customers, to a geopolitical logic. This will allow Russia to export its oil further, especially to China, India or Singapore refineries, and the European Union to import more from the Middle East, Africa or the United States.”

Paul Tourret foresees some difficulties. Exporting Russian crude to Asia means using large tankers to reduce travel costs, but the biggest one, VLCC (Editor’s note: “very large crude carriers”, 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes of oil), too big to sail in the Baltic and Black Seas, where Primorsk and Novorossiysk, Russia’s two biggest oil exporting ports, are located. Nor could they cross the Suez Canal with a full load.

The tension on the tanker

Solutions exist: evacuation with a smaller vessel then moving to a larger one, easing VLCC at the Suez entrance and oil recovery by pipeline at the exit, a major tour through south Africa, use of the smaller tanker, suezmax (between 120,000 and 180,000 tons). But everything is less frugal… Anyway, this is a less optimized solution…