As China shrinks

India will be the most populous country in 2023 – with major challenges

Thursday, December 1, 2022 | 03:25

Only China has more inhabitants than India. But according to United Nations forecasts, this should change in the coming year: by then, there will be more than 1.4 billion inhabitants in the two countries. Beyond that, India’s population is expected to continue to grow while China’s declines. In the last century, both countries had taken steps to ensure that population growth was slowed. These are challenges for the new most populous country in the world.

young and old

About two-thirds of India’s population – around 900 million people – are of working age between 15 and 64 years old. And this group is expected to continue to grow in the coming years – unlike western countries like Germany, where the population is increasingly aging. Indian politicians have always called it the “demographic dividend”, a boost to the economy and an opportunity to improve the lives of millions of people.

education and jobs

Thus, the many young people could be an opportunity for India. But there is a problem: although the economy is growing relatively rapidly, companies in the service sector, which generate relatively few jobs, are the main contributors to growth. Many cannot find jobs and depend on money from family members. They often don’t have a good education either. After all, relatively few people get a very good education at good schools – including renowned engineering colleges in big cities. According to various estimates, only a third of women work, which is partly due to the lack of jobs and the country’s conservative values.

Alakh N. Sharma, director of the Institute for Human Development (IHD) in the capital New Delhi. Hopefully, the country will create factory jobs through the government’s “Make in India” initiative, which aims to attract foreign and Indian companies, among others, by reducing bureaucratic hurdles. Finally, the government should give more women access to higher education.

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If all of this happens, India can really reap its “demographic dividend” before India’s population – like China and the West – starts to age, Sharma believes. “It will be difficult for India , but I have hope,” Sharma said. “It won’t happen overnight, but it has to happen soon.”

health and disease

In India, the number of people dying from non-communicable diseases such as heart or lung diseases has increased dramatically: according to Indian government data, more than 60% of all deaths in India were recently due to these diseases, against there is less than three decades 40 percent. The reasons for the many cases of illness are, for example, severe air pollution and malnutrition. At the same time, the government spends less than 3% of its budget on health, Sharma says. It also means that many do not have access to good health infrastructure: “In the next few years, India should offer health insurance for everyone. The country can afford it.

poverty and wealth

Overall poverty in India has declined over time – but due to its large population, the country still has the highest number of poor people in the world, according to the United Nations development programme, UNDP. Inequality in the country is also high and growing: according to aid organization Oxfam, 10% of India’s population owns 77% of the country’s wealth. While there were nine billionaires in 2000, there are now 199. Few people contribute much to the country’s economic output, very little. In less prosperous regions, one sees little of modern India and economic boom. And: More than half of the population lives from agriculture, many from small businesses.

access to water

According to the World Bank, 18% of the world’s population lives in India, but only 4% of water resources are available here. So many people struggle to get water. And the situation is exacerbated by the climate crisis and the disappearance of groundwater, a government think tank warned in 2018. About six percent of the population – in absolute terms, many people – do not have access to water. potable water. And the lack of access to water particularly affects women: they often have to queue for hours at water pumps or walk long distances to other water sources. Sharma thinks resource problems in cities could increase in the future as more people move there to work: “The government hasn’t really planned our cities. And you can see it.

With and without birth control

The population in India continues to grow. But the birth rate is falling: according to official figures, Indian women have had only two children on average in their lifetime for some time now, which is below the reproduction rate of 2.1 required for a stable population. According to this study, about two-thirds of couples now use contraceptives. Five years ago, only one in two couples did this.