Based on the UN population forecast, on April 14, India overtook China as the most populous country. In 2023, about 1.4 billion people lived in the two countries. However, one must bear in mind how difficult it is to calculate the concrete population of a country – it is impossible to determine conclusively whether India actually surpasses China today, but only by to estimate. Even the number of people living in a country at the start of a forecast can only be determined imprecisely. In Germany, for example, registration data is updated annually and repeatedly compared with a census. However, depending on the quality of a country’s registration data, the uncertainty regarding the actual population can sometimes be very large.

Of course, not only are current population numbers particularly exciting for researchers and politicians, but also predictions of where we might be as a world population ten or twenty years from now. However, the range of such calculations is wide. An example: For India, the United Nations forecasts oscillate between one billion (low scenario) and more than two billion (high scenario). The fact that India currently holds the population record is mainly due to the relatively high fertility rate. In 2022, it was 2.01 children per woman – but the trend is decreasing.

Basically, the researchers are assuming that our demographic numbers are at their peak: according to a new forecast from the Earth4all initiative, the world’s population could peak at 8.5 billion people around 2040 and drop to around 6 billion by the end of the year. end of the century. Catherina Hinz, executive director of the Berlin Institute for Population and Development, points out that when the world’s population will peak depends mainly on how countries with particularly high birth rates develop. If living conditions there improve, the increase decreases.