Practically speaking, the heads of state and government of the major western industrial countries now have one less problem. For months there has been speculation over whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to the G-20 summit in Bali – raising questions about whether and how one could sit at the table with war criminals. On Thursday, hosts Indonesia and the Kremlin provided clarity. Putin will not come to Bali next week and send Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. In Putin’s system of government, Lavrov is only seen as the recipient of orders with no room for maneuver. The 72-year-old man has appeared at the G-20 foreign ministers’ meeting which is considered embarrassing. Immediately after reading his own speech, he left so as not to have to listen to criticism of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

An Indonesian government representative said that the Russian President would attend one of the G-20 summit meetings virtually. It was initially unclear what this would mean for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s virtual participation, which has also been announced. Zelensky has stated that he does not want to take part in the summit with Putin.

On the other hand, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) made it clear from the start that he would travel to Bali, regardless of whether Putin came or not. He believes that the G 20 should be maintained as a forum. For now it has worked. What is certain, however, is that the summit of the most powerful industrialized and developing nations, which begins next Tuesday, will be dominated by disputes over how to properly handle Russia’s war of aggression. Moscow’s loyal partners such as China, India and South Africa are expected to counter Western efforts to further isolate Russia. Among the front lines, Indonesian President Joko Widodo will try to display as much normalcy as possible at the summit. Indonesia’s G-20 presidency has “made it very, very clear” that it wants a joint communique, according to German government circles.

Whether there will be a joint summit declaration at the end remains to be seen

The conundrum so far is how this is supposed to happen. Western democracies have an obligation to denounce Russia’s attacks on the international order and its responsibilities for the global energy and food crisis, for example. Despite the waning support, Russia is still succeeding in some parts of the world with its claim that Western sanctions are to blame for everything.

The negotiations in Bali will run along the lines of this conflict. This applies in particular to the first working session, which will be dedicated to global food security and the energy transition. The second major topic is the architecture of global health, and the third is digital transformation. There is still a huge difference of opinion, according to the federal government. In this case, it is “totally unpredictable” whether it will ultimately suffice for an agreement on a summit declaration or at least a statement from the Indonesian presidency.